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Tidal surge predicted Severn Bore 10 February 2008

A Big westerley gale forecast in the Bristol Channel Sunday night 9th of February should impact on the head of the spring tides to produce a large Severn bore for Monday morning, 10th February.
If wind speeds reach an average blow of 70mph and build to 80mph plus we will have the perfect conditions to add significant height to the Severn bore Monday morning. The forecast wind is due to be a powerful westerly equinoctial gale which comes with perfect timimg for the peak of the spring tides. If the blow continues throughout the flowing tide the Severn bore could be very big.
The mitigating factors against an all time day are an unexceptional tide 0f 9.4 metres rather than 10.5 and low fresh water state in the river Severn, resulting from the recent dry spell. Nature being as she is it is incredibly rare to get the coincidence of conditions talked about in the Longwave Extra "The Making of Longwave", where I talk of the day to come.
An intense low pressure system, plus 100 mph winds, plus 10.5 metre tide, plus high fresh water levels all conspire to produce a Severn bore in excess of 3 metres or 10 feet as average heights. For this we must wait on, but in the meantime there will be plenty of spots in the river Severn where Monday's bore could be spectacular. Depending on the sandbanks my bet is on Boatyards, for Sabrina to show that A frame peak that a few of us have been privileged to both see and catch.

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Posted at 15:26:07